2026 on Course to Tie or Break Record as Warmest Year Ever
Written by AI from carbonbrief.org's report. Not checked by a person.
A Carbon Brief analysis finds 2026 has a 67 % chance of becoming the warmest year on record at roughly 1.52 °C above pre-industrial levels, driven by a historically powerful El Niño.
A detailed Carbon Brief climate analysis, widely circulating in the first week of November 2026, found that 2026 stands a 67 % chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year in recorded history. Global average temperatures are projected to reach approximately 1.52 °C above pre-industrial levels for the full year. August 2026 set a monthly temperature record — roughly 0.12 °C above the previous high — and around 22 % of Earth's surface experienced record-warm temperatures between July and September. Western Europe recorded its hottest summer ever, with Spain's September exceeding its previous record by 0.7 °C, and 55 countries set national temperature records for September. A key driver is a rare El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, with forecast models projecting a peak intensity near 4 °C — potentially the strongest in a thousand years. Earth's energy imbalance, which measures how much more heat the planet absorbs than it radiates, has more than doubled since the early 2000s, rising from roughly 0.5 to 1.25 watts per square metre. Looking ahead, Carbon Brief projects 2027 will reach around 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96 % chance of being the warmest year on record.
