Arctic Polar Vortex Collapses Early: Germany's Winter 2026/27 Forecast Is Anyone's Guess

Meteorologists are facing what weather portal Meteored calls "forecasts without any prior experience" for Germany's winter of 2026/27. The Arctic polar vortex — the band of strong westerly winds that normally traps cold air over the North Pole in winter — is weakening earlier than at any point in records going back to the late 1950s. According to Severe Weather Europe, 96 percent of runs of the European weather model predict a wind reversal by November 11, with stratospheric temperatures at around 30 kilometres altitude projected to be more than 27°C above normal. The previous earliest record was held by November 28, 1968. Simultaneously, the Pacific is experiencing its strongest El Niño since measurements began: central Pacific sea-surface temperatures stood 3.3°C above average in mid-October, and models expect roughly 3.8°C above normal from November through January — well above the previous record El Niño of 2015/16 at around 2.6°C. NOAA predicted over the summer that this event would surpass all El Niños since 1950. Because the two records have never coincided before, historical analogy is impossible. Previous El Niño winters show the full range of outcomes across Germany: 2015/16 averaged a very mild +3.6°C nationally, while 2009/10 brought severe cold at −1.3°C. A mild, unsettled winter remains most likely, but prolonged cold spells are explicitly possible.