China's Economy Beats Forecasts with 4.5% Growth in Q3

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported on October 19 that the country's gross domestic product expanded 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, beating a Reuters consensus forecast of 4.4% and recovering from a more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.2%, topping expectations of 1.1%. The outperformance was driven largely by a record-breaking export surge: Chinese exports jumped 36.3% year-on-year in September — the biggest leap since early 2021 — propelled by AI-related components and green-tech products such as batteries and electric vehicles. GDP for the first three quarters totalled 107.1 trillion yuan, up 4.6% from a year earlier, placing China comfortably within its official 4.5%–5% annual growth target range. The strong headline figure masked persistent domestic weaknesses: the property sector continued its prolonged slump and consumer spending remained subdued. Analysts noted that the economy's reliance on exports for momentum creates vulnerability should overseas demand soften or trade tensions with the West escalate further.