US Jobs Report: Hiring Remains Weak as Inflation Erodes Real Wages
Written by AI from wtop.com's report. Not checked by a person.
The October US jobs report is expected to show only 65,000 new positions added, well below historical norms, with real wages falling for the sixth consecutive month as inflation keeps outpacing pay rises.
The US Labor Department is set to release October payroll data on Friday, with economists forecasting 65,000 net new jobs — a modest rebound from September's disappointing 29,000 but far below the 166,000-per-month average seen in 2023–2024. So far in 2026, employers have averaged just 68,000 monthly job additions. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, according to a FactSet survey of forecasters. More strikingly, inflation has been systematically outpacing wage growth: average hourly earnings fell 0.7% in real terms in September, marking the sixth consecutive year-over-year monthly decline in purchasing power. Economists describe the labour market as operating in a 'low-fire, low-hire' mode — companies are reluctant to lay off existing workers but unwilling to expand headcount. The break-even threshold for keeping unemployment stable has also collapsed, from roughly 166,000 monthly additions in late 2023 to just over 5,000 today, reflecting baby boomer retirements and a slower-growing labour force due to Trump's immigration crackdown. Voters' frustration with the high cost of living was widely cited as a key factor in Democrats' midterm victories, adding political weight to the forthcoming economic data.
