China's Economy Grows 4.5% in Q3, Beating Forecasts on Export Surge
China's GDP expanded 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, topping the consensus forecast of 4.4%, as a 36% surge in September exports drove a rebound from a three-year low — even as domestic consumption and property investment remained weak.
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the world's second-largest economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the July–September quarter of 2026, beating the Reuters analyst consensus of 4.4% and rebounding from a more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 1.2%, ahead of the forecast 1.1%. For the first nine months of 2026, cumulative growth stood at 4.6%, within the lower end of the government's 4.5–5.0% full-year target. The recovery was led almost entirely by exports: September goods exports surged 36.3% year-on-year, fuelled by strong global demand for electronics, electric vehicles and AI-related hardware, particularly from Taiwan-linked and mainland manufacturers benefiting from AI investment. However, the domestic economy showed persistent weakness. Retail sales rose just 1.1%, property investment continued to contract, and fixed-asset investment fell short of expectations, despite targeted government credit directives toward infrastructure and technology. Industrial output rose 5.5% in September. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook, released the week before, had singled out China as needing stronger fiscal stimulus to shift from export-led to consumption-led growth.
