1960 'Doomsday' Paper Predicting Population Infinity on 13 November 2026 Resurfaces Online
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A paper published in the journal Science in 1960, predicting that human population would approach mathematical infinity on 13 November 2026 — a point where the model stops producing a finite value — has resurfaced online just days before that date, prompting a wave of humour, curiosity and debate.
A paper published on 4 November 1960 in the journal Science, titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," has drawn renewed attention as its predicted date approaches. The study was written by researchers Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot, who examined historical population trends stretching back two millennia and built a mathematical model suggesting that continued growth along the same trajectory would produce a singularity — a point where the model stops yielding a finite value — on that precise date.
A Threads post sharing an image of the paper attracted more than 650 likes and over 130 shares. The original poster later said they were surprised so many people had taken the prediction at face value. Reactions ranged from jokes suggesting alternative end dates to comparisons with past apocalyptic warnings that never materialised, though at least one commenter acknowledged that unchecked population growth could carry real consequences even if pinning an exact date was impossible.
The model carries no claim of physical catastrophe; it is a mathematical projection of what would occur if past growth patterns had continued without change. Historian Alan MacEachern, writing in The Conversation in October, noted that the model tracked real population figures surprisingly well until around 1993, when actual numbers began falling behind the projections. Declining birth rates explain much of that gap: the global birth rate is now less than half what it was in 1960. Because the model extrapolated from historical trends rather than accounting for future shifts in fertility, its assumptions gradually diverged from reality, making 13 November a mathematical artefact rather than a scientifically established deadline.
