Fed Expected to Hold Rates Wednesday as December Hike Odds and Big Tech Earnings Come Into Focus

This is one of the busiest stretches of the Q3 2026 earnings season, with a Federal Reserve decision, key economic data and major tech results all landing within roughly two days. CME FedWatch currently shows about an 88% probability that rates stay unchanged when the Fed announces on Wednesday afternoon. With a hold largely priced in, attention will shift to Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. According to FXEmpire, futures are pricing around an 80% chance of another hike in December, so any hawkish signals from Warsh could move markets quickly.

Thursday brings the two data points most likely to shape that December outlook. The advance Q3 GDP estimate is forecast at around 3%, and monthly Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is forecast at 0.3%. Strong growth paired with a hotter-than-expected inflation reading would give the Fed reason to keep policy tight, while softer figures could ease some of that pressure. Weekly jobless claims also land Thursday.

Big Tech earnings run almost in parallel. Microsoft and Alphabet both report Wednesday after the close, just hours after the Fed decision, with Amazon following Thursday. Together they will test confidence in AI data-center spending; hyperscaler capital expenditure is expected to total around $800 billion this year. Cloud revenue growth and capital spending guidance will likely matter as much as the headline earnings numbers.

Wall Street closed mostly lower last week. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68, the Nasdaq declined 0.21% and the Dow dropped 1.23% to 52,215.16. Despite that caution, S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are on pace to grow about 29.5% year over year, according to FactSet data as of October 23, with 24% of companies having reported.

This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice.