Dow Falls 1.2% as Three Central Banks Prepare to Set Rates This Week

Global markets opened the week on a cautious note as investors positioned for three successive central-bank decisions. The Dow Jones fell 1.23% while the Nasdaq shed only 0.21%, with the sell-off concentrated in traditional industrial and rate-sensitive names rather than technology. The US 10-year Treasury yield settled at the symbolic 5% level, and gold eased near $4,000 as haven demand moderated alongside a pullback in oil prices.

The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75–4.00%, following a quarter-point increase in September. The real debate has moved to December: preliminary US third-quarter GDP is forecast at a 3.2% annualised pace, sharply above the 2.2% recorded in the prior quarter, while core personal-consumption expenditure inflation is expected at 3.1% year-on-year—well above the Fed's 2% target. Prediction markets on Polymarket put the odds of another Fed hike before year-end at 76.5%, with $1.07 million traded on that outcome.

Brent crude retreated from multi-month highs on Monday but remains well above $100 a barrel. Asian equities were broadly defensive, with Japan's Nikkei losing about 0.8% after a 4% slide last week, and South Korea's Kospi also slipping. The dollar held firm, with the euro near $1.12 and the yen at 157 per dollar.

The European Central Bank is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan announces its decision on Friday, giving markets three straight days of central-bank guidance to digest.