First Frost in Berlin: Will It Snow on November 11?

Berlin has entered its first frosty nights of autumn 2026, with temperatures dropping to minus two degrees Celsius in outer districts by Friday night, the German Weather Service (DWD) confirmed. The season follows an exceptionally snowy 2025–26 winter in which Berlin recorded snow cover on 30 days — the most since 2012 — and a January average of minus 1.8 degrees Celsius, the coldest since 2010.

Looking ahead, weather models are divided on whether Berlin could see snowfall around November 11. A recent run of the American GFS model showed up to five centimetres of snow across central Germany, while the northeast — the region that includes Berlin — was shown with up to three centimetres. European models have swung between mild and cold scenarios. Meteorologist Dominik Jung of wetter.net described the situation as still undecided, saying he expects greater clarity by the end of the current week.

Even if snow falls in early November, it is unlikely to settle on still-warm ground and would melt quickly at lower elevations; accumulation is expected first in upland areas above roughly 600 metres, such as the Harz or Erzgebirge. Statistically, Berlin sees its first frost in early November — which arrived on schedule this year — but a continuous snow cover of at least one centimetre rarely forms before late November or December.

The long-range outlook for December, based on the US climate model CFS and European models, points to temperatures one to two degrees above average — "mild and wet", in Jung's words — offering little prospect of a white Christmas. Berlin last had a white Christmas in 2010.