New Dementia Cases to More Than Double Globally by 2050, Study Finds

A sweeping global analysis published in JAMA Neurology on October 12, 2026 projects that the number of new dementia cases diagnosed each year will more than double within a generation. Drawing on data from 22 studies covering 38,418 participants across 18 countries, researchers estimate annual new dementia cases will rise from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million by 2050 — a 116% increase. The total number of people living with dementia is expected to reach 150 million globally by mid-century. Women bear a disproportionate risk: their age-standardised incidence rate is 10.6 new cases per 1,000 person-years, compared with 8.6 for men, a gap the authors link partly to hormonal changes and menopause. The burden will also fall hardest on low- and middle-income countries, where the incidence rate reaches 13.6 per 1,000 person-years versus 8.3 in high-income nations, owing to faster population ageing, higher stroke and obesity rates, and weaker health infrastructure. Researchers emphasise that ageing populations are the primary driver but stress that up to 45% of dementia cases are theoretically preventable through modifiable risk factors including cardiovascular health, air pollution, hearing loss, and education. The study is the most comprehensive global incidence estimate to date and has prompted calls for urgent international investment in dementia prevention and care systems.