How New York City Voters Could Decide the Governor's Race

With early voting already underway and Election Day on November 3 approaching, a Gothamist analysis published October 29, 2026 explains why New York City turnout could be decisive in the race between incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Four years ago, Hochul won the five boroughs by a 70%-30% margin over Republican Lee Zeldin but lost the rest of the state by 8 points, giving her only a narrow 6-point overall victory. Blakeman's campaign advisers say he needs at least 32% of the city vote to be competitive statewide; he has predicted he will clear 36%. Current polls suggest that will be difficult: a Siena University survey puts him at just 23% in the city, and a Marist University poll at 26%. Statewide, Siena shows Hochul leading 54% to 40%, while Marist has it 53% to 42%. More than 294,000 New York City voters cast early ballots over the first four days of the nine-day early voting period — a 72% increase over the same period in 2022. The rest of the state, however, saw an even steeper 97% rise in early voting, a potential sign of strength for Blakeman outside the city. Through those first four days, 76% of NYC early voters were registered Democrats and 11% were Republicans, according to the city Board of Elections. Hochul has leaned heavily on New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose popularity with younger Democratic voters she hopes will boost her totals in the boroughs. Early voting continues through November 1.