UN Declares 1.5 °C Warming Limit 'Imminent and Unavoidable' Ahead of COP31
The UN's annual Emissions Gap Report formally states for the first time that the 1.5 °C Paris target will be breached, with current policies pointing to 2.8 °C of warming this century.
Released on 21 October 2026 ahead of the COP31 climate summit, the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report marks a historic threshold: its authors now say that limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is 'imminent and unavoidable.' This is the first time the flagship report has gone that far. Although global greenhouse-gas emissions have plateaued, the world is still on track for roughly 2.8 °C of warming under existing government policies, or about 2.6 °C if all national climate pledges are fully implemented. Even the most optimistic modelled scenario—a steep pathway requiring an 18 % emissions cut by 2030, 45 % by 2035, and 69 % by 2040 relative to 2025—would only limit peak warming to 1.7–1.8 °C before temperatures fall back to 1.5 °C by 2100. Outgoing UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged the dire findings, calling for emergency action. The report will frame negotiations at COP31.
