China's Economy Grows 4.5% in Q3, Beating Forecasts, but Weak Consumer Spending Persists

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported on October 19, 2026 that the country's economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, surpassing the 4.4% consensus forecast and accelerating from the 4.3% pace recorded in the second quarter. For the first three quarters of 2026 combined, GDP expanded 4.6%, placing full-year growth firmly within the government's annual target range of 4.5% to 5% set in March. The growth was driven largely by a surge in tech-related industrial output and strong exports: industrial output rose 5.5% in September, and export volumes expanded rapidly during the month. However, the domestic economy remained subdued. Retail sales grew by just 1.1%, reflecting weak consumer confidence, while property investment and fixed-asset investment both declined, reflecting the continued drag from China's prolonged real-estate sector slump. Economists noted that while headline growth was solid, the imbalance between a booming export sector and a weak domestic consumer remained a structural concern. Equity markets in mainland China fell slightly despite the positive data, as investors concluded the figures offered little reason to expect additional major stimulus.