Israel Votes in High-Stakes Election That Could End Netanyahu's Long Grip on Power
Israel heads to the polls on October 27 in its first election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, with polls showing an almost dead-heat between Netanyahu's bloc and a four-party opposition alliance.
Israel holds its legislative election on October 27, the first since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, which triggered Israel's war on Gaza and a wider regional conflict. All 120 seats in the Knesset are up for grabs, and opinion polls point to an exceptionally close race. Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc is projected to win around 50 seats, while a four-party opposition alliance — made up of the Yashar party, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Together alliance — is projected to win roughly 52. Neither side is close to the 61 seats needed to form a governing majority outright. The two Arab-led Palestinian parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, are projected to win about 13 seats between them and could prove decisive in determining who forms the next government. The opposition bloc has not announced who would lead a future coalition, though former army chief Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party is seen as the most likely prime ministerial candidate. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who co-leads the Together alliance with Yair Lapid, is another potential candidate. Because Israel uses a proportional representation system, the outcome will hinge on coalition negotiations. Analysts have outlined eight possible scenarios, ranging from Netanyahu assembling another government with far-right partners such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, to an opposition-led administration, a national unity arrangement, a minority government relying on outside parliamentary support, or yet another inconclusive result that sends Israel back to the polls.
