New Siena Poll: Hochul Leads Blakeman by 14 Points as Mamdani's NYC Popularity Grows

A Siena University poll released Wednesday found Governor Kathy Hochul leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by 14 percentage points — 54% to 40% — among likely New York State voters, widening from a nine-point gap in Siena's September polling. For the first time in Siena's polling during her five years as governor, a majority of likely voters viewed Hochul favorably, with her rating reaching 51%, up from 48% last month. Her job approval also rose to 51%, compared with 48% in September.

The survey found New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's favorability among city voters climbing to 69%, up from 60% last month, while his unfavorable rating fell from 31% to 28%. Statewide, his favorability was little changed at 47%.

A separate Marist University poll, also released Wednesday, showed Hochul ahead statewide 53% to 42%, though Marist painted a less favorable picture of Hochul overall and showed Blakeman leading among independents — a finding at odds with Siena's results.

Blakeman dismissed both polls as "voter suppression tactics designed to discourage Republicans and manipulate the outcome of this election," with his campaign pointing to conflicting independent-voter findings and claiming its own internal surveys showed a "neck-and-neck race," without providing figures.

Hochul's campaign began airing three new attack ads Tuesday as part of a multimillion-dollar statewide push, targeting Blakeman over Medicaid cuts, higher health insurance costs, and immigration enforcement.

Siena surveyed 807 likely New York voters from October 19 through 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.